Tampa, FL Florida's fastest-growing metro; warm climate and no state income tax attracting residents from the Northeast. This report covers current market conditions, the full investment arithmetic on a median-priced rental, and where Tampa ranks against the 19 other metros tracked here.
Current Market Snapshot
Investment Analysis
With a gross yield of 5.5% and a median price of $355,000, Tampa sits in the moderate yield range. A typical 2-bedroom property rents for approximately $1,627/month based on HUD Fair Market Rent data.
The affordability index of 90 suggests housing costs exceed what the median household can comfortably afford — watch for affordability-driven demand moderation.
Market Temperature: Hot
With a median DOM of 30 days and approximately 5,600 active listings and fierce competition, Tampa's market is currently classified as hot. Low inventory is supporting seller leverage; buyers should move decisively on well-priced properties.
The Numbers on a Median-Priced Rental
Buying the median Tampa home at $355,000 with 20% down takes $81,650 in cash — a $71,000 deposit plus roughly $10,650 in closing costs at 3% — and leaves a $284,000 loan. At 7.0% over 30 years that is $1,889/month in principal and interest.
On those assumptions the median Tampa rental produces a 2.15% cap rate and falls roughly $1,252 a month short of covering debt service. Cash-on-cash return on the $81,650 invested is -18.4%, and the debt service coverage ratio is 0.34× — below 1.0×, meaning the property cannot service its own debt at 20% down — this is an appreciation play, not a cash flow one. On a rent basis, you need $3,107 a month to break even — 91% above the $1,627 HUD benchmark.
Rate and Rent Sensitivity
Financing cost dominates the outcome. One percentage point on the mortgage rate moves monthly cash flow by more than a 10% swing in rent does:
| Mortgage Rate | P+I Payment | Monthly Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $1,703/mo | -$1,066/mo |
| 7.0% | $1,889/mo | -$1,252/mo |
| 8.0% | $2,084/mo | -$1,447/mo |
| Rent Scenario | Monthly Rent | Cap Rate | Monthly Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| HUD FMR − 10% | $1,464/mo | 1.69% | -$1,390/mo |
| HUD FMR | $1,627/mo | 2.15% | -$1,252/mo |
| HUD FMR + 10% | $1,789/mo | 2.62% | -$1,115/mo |
How Tampa Ranks
Among the 20 metros covered here, Tampa is 8th by gross rental yield and 13th most expensive. Its 5.5% yield sits above the 5.15% median of the set, and its $355,000 price sits below the $390,000 median. The price-to-rent ratio is 18.2× and the price-to-income ratio is 5.7× against a median household income of $62,000.
The metros closest to Tampa on gross yield are Atlanta, GA (5.6%), Las Vegas, NV (5.3%), Phoenix, AZ (5.2%). If Tampa is on your list, those are the markets whose numbers you should be holding it against — not the national average.
What Has to Be True for Tampa to Work
A median-priced rental here consumes $15,024 a year in cash. That is not automatically a bad deal: the same loan repays $2,885 of principal in year one, so the true first-year drag is about $12,139. To break even on the cash line alone the property has to appreciate 4.23% a year, against the +2.8% the metro has actually posted over the past twelve months. Hold it five years and amortisation alone builds $16,666 of equity — the question is whether you can fund the shortfall for that long without selling at the wrong moment.
Key Data Points
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $355,000 |
| YoY Price Change | +2.8% |
| Median Days on Market | 30 days |
| Active Listings | 5,600 |
| Est. 2BR Fair Market Rent | $1,627/mo |
| Gross Rental Yield | 5.5% |
| Median Household Income | $62,000 |
| Affordability Index | 90 |
| Price-to-Rent Ratio | 18.2× |
| Price-to-Income Ratio | 5.7× |
| Gross Rent Multiplier | 18.2 |
| Cap Rate (45% expense basis) | 2.15% |
| Cash Flow at 20% Down | -$1,252/mo |
| Cash-on-Cash Return | -18.4% |
| Break-Even Rent | $3,107/mo |
Getting Live Data via API
ZipMarketData provides live data for all ZIP codes within the Tampa, FL metro. Use the /market-stats endpoint with any Tampa ZIP code for the most current figures — or run the same analysis without writing code in the dashboard.