ZIP code 85001 covers the Central Phoenix; mixed residential and commercial with access to major employment corridors. On the median price and the HUD rent, 85001 does not cash flow at 20% down. That is a legitimate position to take on an appreciation thesis, but it should be a decision rather than a surprise — the shortfall, the break-even rent and the appreciation needed to justify it are all quantified below.
This page works the numbers end to end: what a median-priced property costs to buy, what HUD says a 2-bedroom rents for, and what that combination produces as cap rate, monthly cash flow, cash-on-cash return and break-even rent at current financing.
Market Statistics
What It Costs to Buy in 85001
At $285,000 with 20% down you need $65,550 in cash — a $57,000 deposit plus about $8,550 of closing costs at 3% — and finance $228,000. At 7.0% over 30 years that is $1,517/month in principal and interest before a single operating cost.
Income and Operating Expenses
HUD's 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent for 85001 is $1,450/month, or $17,400 a year gross. Applying 7% vacancy, 9% management, 1% of value for maintenance, 0.5% for insurance and 1% for property tax:
Returns at 20% Down
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Gross yield | 6.11% | Rent before any costs, as a share of price |
| Cap rate | 2.67% | Unlevered return after operating costs |
| Monthly cash flow | -$884 | After debt service at 7.0% |
| Cash-on-cash | -16.17% | Return on the $65,550 actually invested |
| DSCR | 0.42× | Lenders typically want 1.25× or better |
| Gross rent multiplier | 16.4 | Price divided by annual rent |
| Break-even rent | $2,494/mo | Rent needed to cover everything |
On these assumptions a median-priced property in 85001 runs $884 a month negative at 20% down — the rent does not cover the loan plus operating costs. It is well short of both the 1% rule and the 0.7% modern screen, at 0.51% of price in monthly rent. Raising the deposit to 30% cuts the payment to $1,327/month and moves cash flow to -$694/month on $94,050 of cash invested, a -8.85% cash-on-cash return.
Rate Sensitivity
Nothing on this page moves the result as hard as the mortgage rate. Holding rent and price fixed:
| Mortgage Rate | P+I Payment | Monthly Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $1,367/mo | -$734/mo |
| 7.0% | $1,517/mo | -$884/mo |
| 8.0% | $1,673/mo | -$1,040/mo |
What Has to Be True for 85001 to Work
A median-priced rental in 85001 consumes $10,608 a year in cash at 20% down. That does not automatically make it a bad purchase: the same loan repays $2,316 of principal in the first twelve months, so the real first-year drag is closer to $8,292. For the deal to break even on cash alone the property must appreciate 3.72% a year. Over a five-year hold, amortisation by itself builds $13,380 of equity while you fund roughly $53,040 of cumulative shortfall — so the honest question about 85001 is whether you can carry it that long, not whether the rent covers the mortgage. It does not.
Where 85001 Sits Among Covered ZIPs
Of the 10 ZIP codes profiled on this site, 85001 ranks 1st by gross rental yield and 9th most expensive by median sale price. A 28-day median time on market classifies it as a warm market, which sets how much negotiating room a buyer realistically has on the entry price used in every calculation above.
The ZIP codes closest to 85001 on yield are 30301 Atlanta (5.9%), 89101 Las Vegas (5.68%), 28201 Charlotte (5.14%). Those are the fairer comparison set: a yield gap against a market with a different price level, tax rate and tenant profile tells you very little.
85001 vs the Phoenix, AZ Metro
The wider Phoenix, AZ market has a median sale price of $395,000, a 5.2% gross yield, 32 days on market and an affordability index of 84 against a $68,000 median household income. At $285,000, 85001 trades at a 28% discount to its metro median, and its 6.11% yield is above the metro's 5.2%. Full metro detail is in the Phoenix, AZ market report.